
What is also interesting about the figure from [1] is that the difference in progesterone levels between conception and non-conception cycles is noticeable from 2-3 dpo. This may indicate that a higher concentration of progesterone helps implantation to take place, rather than that fertilisation has signalled for progesterone to be produced.

In the first cycle of the figure from [2] it appears that a chemical pregnancy has taken place, given the low concentration of hCG in weeks 5-6. It may be that estrogen and/or progesterone concentrations were not high enough to produce an endometrium lining which can sustain the fetus, or that the fertilised egg in this cycle was simply not viable at the time of implantation. In either case, the authors speak of "cycle viability", referring to the ability for a given ovulatory cycle to result in pregnancy. They find the proportion of viable cycles to be on average around 0.37.
What I have gathered from this information is that, with regard to the fern test, my estrogen will peak 1-2 days before O-day. In addition, both estrogen and progesterone should on average keep rising after around 7 dpo in the case of successful conception, and fall in the case of non-conception.
[1] Elizabeth A Lenton, Rafida Sulaiman, O Sobowale, and ID Cooke, The human menstrual cycle: plasma concentrations of prolactin, lh, fsh, oestradiol and progesterone in conceiving and non-conceiving women, Journal of reproduction and fertility 65 (1982), no. 1, 131–139.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6804627
[2] Allen J Wilcox, Clarice R Weinberg, and Donna D Baird, Timing of sexual intercourse in relation to ovulationeffects on the probability of conception, survival of the pregnancy, and sex of the baby, New England Journal of Medicine 333 (1995), no. 23, 1517–1521.
www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejm199512073332301